Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Iranian Nuclear program - Does Israel even have the capacity to strike?

With an increasingly resolute Iran, there has been much speculation as to whether or not Israel will strike Iranian facilities in an attempt to halt their weapon development program. Many ask when?

I think that the real question is can they? Do they even have the capacity?

Many allude to their success in destroying Iraq's Osirak facility almost 3 decades back. Unfortunately, Iran is not Iraq.

Not only is the geographical distance further, thereby giving Iranian early warning and air defense systems the possibility of advance notice (even if from sympathetic Shia's in Iraq). Whether the famed Russian S-300 systems made it into the hands of the Islamic Republic or not, my guess is that their Air Defence systems are at a near perpetual state of alert.

To take those out however, would require a far more laborious effort, and more than likely require a massive scale deployment of American stealth capacity. Besides the overt military and political toll that would take on Obama's international and domestic standing, that also risks solidifying a fractious and gravely disenchanted Iranian electorate behind Ahmadinejad and his sabre rattling approach to the West.

Further to that, the fortified bunkers where Iranian nuclear dev. work takes place is much more technically complex to take out than an exposed, above ground reactor such as Osirak, especially considering how many facilities there are. This would involve successive runs (for each location) until the 3rd or 4th run has finally managed to "burrow" through the fortification and destroy the intended target.

I would prefer a nuke free Iran, but courtesy of their current UN Security Council love-in with China, I doubt the severe sanctions needed will ever materialize. If only China woke up and realized the de-stabilizing implications that a nuclear Iran would have on their own energy hungry interests. By this, I mean I have SEVERE doubts that Iran would directly act against Israel, (as most Iranian rhetoric is meant to gain favour from the wider Islamic world) but rather the effect that a increasingly influential nuclear armed Shia nation would have on the Saudi's and to a lesser extent Egypt.

What a complicated world...

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